What’s to Be Made of This “Positive” News That Thompson Could Dump the Term Limits Miscreant

October 29, 2009 press press release printed in its entirety because of insufficient savvy to gauge its significance:

Momentum Continues to Shift to Thompson
Trails by Three Points: 44 percent to 41 percent

Polling completed last week by Garin Heart Yang Research Group, run by pollster Geoff Garin, showed there has been a significant shift and the race has moved closer toward Bill Thompson.

In a survey of 614 New Yorkers who are likely to vote in Tuesday’s election for mayor, the vote overall is Bloomberg 46 percent , Thompson 38 percent , with 17 percent undecided. Among those who say they are certain to vote (305 in total in the sample), Thompson trails by just three points (Bloomberg 44 percent , Thompson 41 percent ) with 15 percent undecided. The race has tightened in all five boroughs.

“We always said this would be a sprint and we are closing strong. This race will be decided on Election Day. We are prepared to turn our voters out with a robust GOTV operation and elect Bill Thompson Mayor,” stated New Yorkers for Thompson Campaign Manager, Eduardo Castell.

Among the overall sample, the vote is:

  • Whites: 59 percent to 28 percent for Bloomberg
  • African Americans: 53 percent to 25 percent for Thompson
  • Hispanics: 43 percent to 40 percent for Thompson, a big shift from last week, and the first time we have had Thompson leading with Hispanics.

    • The undecided voters are disproportionately minorities, which favors Thompson. Among undecided voters, 61 percent STRONGLY agree that Bloomberg was wrong to overturn term limits, and 64 percent agree that Bloomberg has had his chance as mayor and that eight years is enough.

    In a question that is an important indicator of trends and campaign dynamics, a plurality of voters say what they are hearing lately makes them less favorable to Bloomberg (by 31 percent to 22), including pluralities of whites, soft Bloomberg voters, and undecided voters. Bill Thompson had a negative dynamic on this measure last week, but now he has a slight positive plurality saying they have become more favorable to him, by 28 percent to 22 percent.

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